College Admissions Trends

With Early Admission deadlines for most schools less than a month away, it’s a critical time to step back and examine what we learned from last year’s admissions cycle, and what actions you can take right now to ensure you create a good range of options as an applicant.

Read on for a snapshot of key trends, and most importantly, how these impact planning for current applicants–

Key Trends in the 2020–21 Admissions Cycle:

Trend #1: Overall, colleges saw an 11% increase in applications received

• This reflects students applying to a greater number of colleges due to test optional policies, and uncertainty about outcomes & plans.
• This trend makes admissions more competitive for every applicant.
  The more selective the college, the more applications increased. Just a few examples: Boston College: 36% increase in applicationsUniversity of Georgia: 39% increase in applicationsColgate: Doubled their applications!

Trend #2: Increased reliance on Early Decision:

On average colleges used the Early Decision Pathway to fill 53% of their classes.

• Early Decision, a binding agreement to attend the college if admitted through this pathway, has become increasingly important for colleges to establish certainty in meeting their enrollment goals, on their terms.
• This means that more than half of college students were admitted through this binding pathway, making Regular Decision admissions even more competitive, since there are fewer spots to go around.

Trend #3: Test Optional…but not always equal:

On average, students who submitted test scores were admitted at a 10% higher rate than their peers who elected not to have their scores considered.

• Although most colleges offered test optional admissions, in practice they favored applicants who submitted scores when those scores match or exceed the median 50% of admitted applicants’ test scores for the previous year.
• This is very important: submitting scores alone does not change the likelihood of admission. Those scores have to look as strong or better than the typical admitted student to that college. The more selective the college, the more this piece mattered.

What you should do with this information:

These trends tell us that admissions will continue to be both unpredictable, and very competitive for 12th grade students and transfer students applying for the Fall of 2022.

How can you use this data to inform your application process right now?

Set realistic expectations:

• You may need to diversify from that one dream school. This year’s cycle is expected to be more competitive than the last.
• Know that many colleges that were selective in the past are now highly selective and will be in the reach or far reach category for almost all applicants: e.g. NYU, Northeastern, Colgate, and Boston College. Know that this also impacts highly selective public colleges where out of state students have significantly lower likelihood of admission: e.g. U Michigan, UNC, and UVA.
• You should expect very low acceptance rates from the most highly selective colleges. This means that even great-fit applicants who ‘look’ like the profile of past admitted students will be denied. This is a statistical reality.
• Honestly assess the typical GPA and test scores of the students who are admitted to the colleges on your list, and how your own stats compare.
• Search for a college’s “Class Profile” for the class of 2025 to get a snapshot of this data.

Create options for yourself:

• Make sure you have several likely and several possible schools on your college list.
• A school is possible if your GPA and test scores are near the top of their admitted student profile, and/or if the admissions rate is usually between 35–65%
• A school is a likely school if your GPA and test scores well-exceed their admitted student profile, and/or the admissions rate is usually above 65%

If your SAT or ACT scores match the school, submit them.

• Submitting scores statistically advantages an applicant. If you have the scores that meet or exceed the middle 50% of admitted students, it is to your advantage to submit them.
• This is especially true for students in business and/or STEM majors.

If you are ready & able to commit, consider ED:

• Students & families may wish to consider a binding early decision admissions plan if the college is a financial possibility, as a way of creating your best chances of admission.
• Note that if a student does not match the admitted student profile, even this strategy will not be likely to result in an admission.
• Be sure you can put forward your strongest application on this timeline.

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